What happened
A joint publication by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and the ILO Regional Office for Arab States examines how AI could reshape jobs and labour markets across the 22-country Arab region between 2025 and 2035. Using a strategic foresight methodology with three distinct policy scenarios, the report finds that 'nearly 25 per cent of occupations in the region could be affected in one way or another by Generative AI — including jobs at risk of displacement and jobs that will be augmented by these technologies.' Automation is modelled to reduce employment in clerical, retail and routine administrative functions while increasing demand in health, education and technology-intensive roles. The report highlights a skills mismatch reaching '40 to 70 per cent in some countries,' and projects region-wide GDP growth of up to $1.11 trillion by 2035 (from a 2025 baseline of $3.57 trillion) under a high-adoption scenario. GCC data-centre capacity is projected to triple to 3.3 GW by 2030. The distributional analysis finds that young workers (15–24) stand to benefit most, while workers aged 25–54 face short-term displacement risk; migrants, persons with disabilities and refugees face the deepest exclusion risks. All three scenarios converge on the need for proactive policy on skills systems, social protection and inclusive AI governance.
Why it matters
Executives and government leaders operating in or sourcing from the Arab region — particularly in financial services, energy, and public administration — should incorporate these scenarios into workforce planning and supply-chain risk assessments; the skills gap and regulatory heterogeneity across 22 countries create both talent risk and policy uncertainty that will compound AI transformation costs.
Action needed
If your organisation has material operations, partnerships or talent pipelines in the GCC or broader Arab region, task the CHRO and regional leadership with a gap analysis against the three scenarios and identify which skills-shortage categories directly affect your critical roles.