CFR Surveyed 350 Experts About AI's Future — How Experts Think AI Will Change the Global Balance of Power by 2035

The Council on Foreign Relations surveyed 350 foreign policy experts on how frontier AI capability distribution and governance structures will shape global order by 2035. Headline finding: "more than 80 percent of respondents expect that AI governance will be fragmented," with only 5% expecting domestic institutions to keep pace with AI development. Experts split nearly evenly on capability concentration (46% expect continued concentration among a few actors vs. 54% expecting diffusion to dozens of state/non-state actors), and nearly 70% believe frontier AI labs will be the most powerful non-state actors by 2035, with 75% expecting non-state actors to gain leverage over states. More than 70% see a serious AI accident as the most likely trigger for governance change.

Quantifies elite consensus that no institution — national or multilateral — is currently positioned to govern frontier AI, directly informing how boards and policy teams should weight regulatory-capture and fragmentation risk in long-range AI strategy.

Incorporate the fragmentation/power-shift findings into enterprise geopolitical risk scenarios and long-range AI governance planning.